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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still