A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
