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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd